Introduction 

Anglican churchman, W.R. Inge, once wrote: "When our first parents were driven out of Paradise, Adam is believed to have said to Eve: 'My dear, we live in an age of transition.'" [1]

Indeed we do!

In the words of the hymn ". . . change and decay in all around I see," [2] we have a striking analysis of our time. U.S. Sprint characterizes the present in its advertising slogan, "It's a New World."

In their recent book, Resident Aliens, Stanley Hauerwas and William Willmon note:

Sometime between 1960 and 1980, an old, inadequately conceived world ended, and a fresh, new world began. We do not mean to be overly dramatic. Although there are many who have not yet heard the news, it is nevertheless true: A tired old world has ended, an exciting new one is awaiting recognition. . . .

When and how did we change? Although it may sound trivial, one of us is tempted to date the shift sometime on a Sunday evening in 1963. Then, in Greenville, South Carolina, in defiance of the state's time-honored blue laws, the Fox Theater opened on Sunday. Seven of us--reg-ular attenders of the Methodist Youth Fellowship at Buncombe Street Church--made a pact to enter the front door of the church, be seen, then quietly slip out the back door and join John Wayne at the Fox. 

That evening has come to represent a watershed in the history of Christendom, South Carolina style. On that night, Greenville, South Carolina--the last pocket of resistance to secularity in the Western world--served notice that it would no longer be a prop for the church. There would be no more free passes for the church, no more free rides.  . . . All sorts of Christians are waking up and realizing that it is no longer "our world"--if it ever was. [3]

Lyle E. Schaller has reflected this change not only in the contents of, but in the very title of his new book, It's A Different World. [4]

Harold Lamb in his life of Alexander the Great describes memorably the consternation which came upon the Greek army following Alexander the Great across Asia Minor when they had discovered they had marched clearly off the map. The only maps they had were Greek maps, showing only a part of Asia Minor. They were confronted with the Himalayas with no guide post to the dark mystery. [5]

So did Abraham march off the map when "he set out without knowing where he was going." [6]

The Twenty-First Century--the Himalayas that are before us. What are its challenges? In order to establish its challenges I will attempt to characterize it on the basis of available data, some of which is more reliable than others and most of which pertains to the whole church and not narrowly to The Wesleyan Church.

I. THE URBANIZATION OF THE CHURCH

At the beginning of this century a sizeable part of our population lived on the farm in rural America. Thus we were able to sing about the "church in the wildwood" and the "little brown church in the vale." Here the minister was able to visit his neighbors, invite them to church, preach to them, and visit them when they were sick and dying. He had time to study and even had time to plant his own garden.[7]

The demographic trends, both current and projected, indicate a very different society--not a rural one, but an urban one. Demographers calculate that the world's population was one billion in the early nineteenth century; two billion in 1930; four billion in 1975. They calculate that by 1999 the population will have grown to six billion and that by 2025 it will have reached eight billion. [8]

Where do/will these people live? In large extended continuous and inter-connecting urban areas known as urban sprawl. In the 1960s there were 140 world class cities (cities with a population of a million or more people). By 1988 this figure had swollen to 307. It is estimated that by the year 2000 there will be almost 500 such cities in the world. [9]

We do not need to wait until the next century to appreciate the implications of urbanization: environmental, ecological, economical, educational, and cultural. This movement to the city Dr. Raymond Bakke calls "an elevator effect," likening the situation to the cramming of twenty people in a small elevator, all demanding and seeking to protect their own space. He further notes that while one might be inclined to think that such concentrations increase communications, to the contrary, they decrease communication as each one builds a "cocoon" to protect her own space. [10]

Consider the implications of this for evangelization. Richard B. Wilke observes that this urbanization will force us to look back at Wesley's strategies where we find more direction than we find in our more recent practices. [11]

II. THE COLORING OF THE CHURCH

To put this point in focus, I will cite the experience of Dr. Raymond J. Bakke:

In 1965 I accepted an assignment at a church in inner city Chicago. Since then I have lived in a neighborhood which is 14% white, 35% black from many different black cultures, 28% Asian from many different Asian cultures and 21% Hispanic from many different Spanish cultures. There are 60,000 people in our neighborhood which encompasses a radius of about a mile and a quarter. There are 2,500 students in the high school my kids attended. The 2,500 students come from over 60 countries; eleven languages are taught in the school, six of which are Asian. Over 50% of the students in the high school in my community are foreign-born. To some extent I think my two and a half decades in the city serve as a parable of the world many of today's graduates face.[12]

 He continues:

The United States really is becoming a third world country. For years the U.S. has been the largest Jewish nation. For years it has been the largest Irish nation. It is the second largest black nation in the world. (Only Nigeria of all the 53 countries of Africa has more black people than the United States.) Currently, only Mexico and Spain, maybe Argentina, have more Spanish people than the U.S.

By the year 2000, Hispanics in the U.S. will out number Anglos. Very soon Hispanics will out number blacks.

 Linguistically, there are about the same number of people in this hemisphere who speak Spanish as English. And additional 130 million speak Portuguese and some French is spoken in Quebec and the Caribbean

. . . the third largest language group in the U.S. is those who use American Sign Language. There are more people in the culture of the sign language in the United States than there are people in all of the countries of Central America, 13 million. The U.S. as a country is far different from most people's perception of it.

The world has come to the city. For example, there are more Polish people in Chicago than there are people in either San Francisco or Seattle. In the Archdiocese of Chicago, churches use twenty-two languages every Sunday. The Southern Baptist Home Mission Board uses twenty-six languages in the home mission churches in Los Angeles. [13]

 He adds that 87% of the babies being born in the world are non-white; 49% are yellow; the rest are black and brown. [14]

This coloring provides a significant challenge to our American church which is essentially white and which is so enamored by the Church Growth movement.

Rather than simply anticipate, we need to experience now the redeemed company as characterized by John: ". . . from all tribes and peoples and tongues." [15]

III. THE GRAYING OF THE CHURCH

In 1920 there were 3.1 million people in America 65 or over; in 1988 there were 30.4 million such persons, representing 12.4% of the population, about one in every eight Americans. Since 1980 the number of older Americans increased by 4.7 million or 18% compared to an increase of 7 % for the under 65 population. Note the following projections:

The older population is expected to continue to grow in the future. This growth will slow somewhat during the 1990s because of the relatively small number of babies born during the Great Depression of the 1930s. The most rapid increase is expected between the years 2010 and 2030 when the "baby boom" generation reaches age 65.

By 2030, there will be about 66 million older persons, 2 and one-half times their number in 1980. If current fertility and immigration levels remain stable, the only age groups to experience significant growth in the next century will be those past age 55.

By the year 2000, persons 65+ are expected to represent 13.0% of the population, and this percentage may climb to 21.8% by 2030. [16]

Not only more older people, but older older people. Note these projections: The older population itself is getting older. In 1988 the 65-74 age group (17.9 million) was eight times larger than in 1900, but the 75-84 group (9.5 million) was 12 times larger and the 85+ group (2.9 million) was 23 times larger.

In 1988, persons reaching age 65 had an average life expectancy of an additional 16.9 years (18.6 years for females and 14.8 years for males.)

A child born in 1988 could expect to live 74.9 years, about 28 years longer than a child born in 1900. The major part of this increase occurred because of reduced death rates for children and young adults. LIfe expectancy at age 65 increased by only 2.4 years between 1900 and 1960, but has increased by 2.6 years since 1960. [17]

Not only living longer, but living better. Medical breakthroughs have and will change the quality of elderly living. Robert B. Maxwell, vice-president of AARP notes that while our society is getting older, the old are getting younger. [18]

Chronological age thus becomes a poor predictor of the timing of life events, of health, work states, family situations, peroccupation and needs. The life cycle has become "fluid," making it difficult to know to which age group we are referring when we speak of the young, the middle aged or the old. For instance, baby boomers approaching 40 are not in the same life situation as their parents were at that age. They will have stayed in school longer, married and begun families later and will be accustomed to two incomes. [19]

When it comes to religious faith, the baby boomers when elderly, will be very different from their parents and grandparents. Statistics show that two-thirds of boomers brought up in a religious faith dropped out during their teen years or early adult years and that 40% have not returned to the church. Since these dropouts will have had little contact with religion they will not likely be the stalwarts of the churches as their parents or grandparents may have been. It is claimed that belief in reincarnation and astrology can still be found among at least one fourth of the boomers. The youth culture of the 1960s then has not died and may reflower again in the boomer's older years. The generational differences that characterized them earlier will continue to do so in later life. [20]

By contrast with the aging occurr in America, note what is happening in the third world. Compare Chicago and Mexico City:

In Chicago and most of the U.S., the median age is 31 and rising, which means that half the people in Chicago are 31 and older and half are 31 or younger. In Mexico City, a city of 20 million growing at a rate of a million a year, the median age is 14.2 Amazingly, the oldest city in our hemisphere is also the youngest. There is no city in the third world that has a median age of over 20. We are talking about cities full of kids! [21]

 

IV. THE FEMINIZATION OF THE CHURCH

A look at general statistics in America shows that 53% of our population is female. Of the American population over age fifty, 56% is female. As the church grays, it is not surprising to find that there are more women than men in the church. [22]

Gallup polls have repeatedly shown that women are more likely than men to attend church, by a 56-44 ratio. Further, the polls show that among all Americans displaying a high level of religious commitment, women out number men by a 65-35 ratio. [23]

Consider the United Methodist Church. In 1888 eight women were elected to the General Conference by their annual conferences, but were refused seats by the General Conference. In 1972 - 27% of the delegates were women, while in 1988 - 52% of the delegates were women. In 1972 no women clergy were delegates, but in 1988 women constituted 15.1% of the ordained clergy delegates. [24]

Keith Pohl notes: "What is happening seems obvious. Women are replacing men in roles formerly and traditionally held by men. But men are not replacing women in roles traditionally filled by women. They are simply dropping out. Some experts are predicting that the drop outs will accelerate dropping out." [25]

Schaller maintains that "evidence strongly suggests that a decline in membership and an increase in the proportion of women tend to go together." [26]

Obviously this feminization is and will have a profound effect upon the supply of clergy.

Again, consider the United Methodist Church. Women in the M.Div. programs of the church's seminaries rose from 24% in 1977 to 41% in 1987. [27] It has been estimated that at least 33% of the students in mainline seminaries today are women.

With the projected shortage of clergy which faces the church at the turn of the century, it would seem that the church will turn, even if reluctantly, to women clergy. While hard figures are difficult to obtain, projections indicate that some 40% of current United Methodist ministers and some 30% of current American Baptist ministers will be retired by early in the next century.

V. THE LITURGICALIZATION OF THE CHURCH

Admittedly this is a more subjective area and one more difficult to document.

What I hear and read indicates a recognition of the impoverished worship service in many churches, particularly evangelical churches. There are also indications that the charismatic phenomenon has crested and is perhaps leveling off.

In a recent Christian Century article, Carl Schalk notes:

But for many churches in the '90s the return to the tradition of the church catholic will mean an increasing reliance on the historic experience of the church at worship. Materials produced by virtually all mainline denominations are emphasizing the stability and continuity of the historic dimensions of worship and church music. This approach is finding a welcome reception by many pastors, church musicians and congregations exhausted by impossible demands for a constant variety. The losers seem to be those who continue to advocate the trendy style of worship characteristic of the late '60s, '70s and early '80s. The '60s folk mass, for instance, is almost dead. Many Catholic parishes have outgrown their '60s-style musical heritage. In most Protestant traditions the mandatory weekly or monthly folk mass has all but disappeared, continuing to find a place only where aging graduates of the '60s and '70s attempt to relive their memories of bygone days.

 While one might expect the case for ordered worship in the tradition in Episcopal, Catholic and Lutheran churches, its resurgence is being felt also among groups whose contact with the church's tradition has been minimal. In Evangelical is Not Enough: Worship of God in Liturgy and Sacraments, Thomas Howard chronicles his evangelical encounter with the rich tradition of the early church. Robert E. Webber of Wheaton College--a center associate more with mass evangelism nd crusades--advocates in Celebrating Our Faith: Evangelism Through Worship, an approach to the unchurched which he calls "liturgical evangelism." 

While the wider impact of such appeals is not yet clear, the call to consider the catholic tradition of the church is receiving an ever-wider hearing. The field belongs increasingly to those who have experienced the richness and depths of the tradition and who are restive with the something-new-every-week folks who, in Luther's words, have "no more than an itch to produce something novel so that they might shine before men as leading lights." [28]

 

VI. THE ECUMENIZING OF THE CHURCH

Jean Lyles notes that ". . . the distinctive identities of mainline U.S. Protestant denominations are fading, and "brand loyalty" has weakened among church goers . . . " [29]

A 1980 Gallup survey showed:

. . . that fewer than half of U.S. adults (43 percent) said they had always been members of the same religion or denomination. Other surveys show that at least 40 percent of U.S. Protestants have switched denominational affiliations. Church bodies can no longer assume that young people will carry on the religious loyalties of their parents. [30] 

Dr. Robert Wood Lynn, writing about one facet of research on the crisis affecting mainstream churches, notes:

 In the 19th century it usually meant something to say, "I am a Methodist," or "I am a Presbyterian." Such identities were "tribal-like." But today many Americans "shop" for a church just as they comparison shop at the supermarket. [31] 

CONCLUSION

There are other areas that I would like to explore, such as the Technologicalization of the church (here the issues are mind boggling and beyond me), the Repositioning of the Church (here the issue is the role and influence of mainline denominations), and the Evolving Leadership of the Church (here the old style is gone--no longer do denomination leaders wind up in the cover of Time magazine as did Eugene Carsen Blake--the new style leader is responsive, collegial, and participating). Time and space do not allow these pursuits.

You will note that I have focused on the challenges, rather than the response. The reasons for this is that this was my assignment, time and space do not allow for more material, and, most of all, I do not have solutions or responses to many of these issues.

The next century is a challenge and it should be viewed positively with faith rather than negatively with fear. But it is appropriate for the church to use the words of Moses confronted by the wilderness: "If your presence will not go with me, do not carry us up from here." [32] But He did and He will.

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1. Cited by Carl Schalk, "Church Music In the '90s: Problems and Prognosis," The Christian Century. (Vol. 107, No. 10), p. 306. 

2. "Abide With Me." 

3. Stanley Haverwas and William Willimon, Resident Aliens. (Nashville: Abingdon Press, 1989), pp. 15-17. 

4. It's A Different World: The Challenge For Today's Pastor--published by Abingdon Press. 

5. Cited by Halford Luccock, Marching Off the Map. (New York: Harper and Brothers, 1952), p. 12. 

6. Hebrews 11:8. 

7. Richard B. Wilke, And Are We Yet Alive. (Nashville: Abingdon Press, 1986), p. 86. 

8. Ibid., pp. 85-86. 

9. Raymond J. Bakke, "The World of the 1990s: What Will Our Students Face?" F.Y.I. (Summer, 1989), p. 2. 

10. Ibid., pp. 2-3. 

11. Wilke, op cit., p.86. 

12. Bakke, op cit., p. 1 

13. Ibid., pp. 1-2. 

14. Ibid., p. 4. 

15. Revelation 7:9. 

16. A Profile of Older Americans. (AARP, 1989), p. 2. 

17. Ibid., p. 1. 

18. Cited by Wade Clark Roof, "The Spirit of the Elderculture." The Christian Century. (Vol. 107, No. 15), p. 530. 

19. Ibid. 

20. Ibid., p. 531. 

21. Bakke, op. cit., p. 2. 

22. Lyle E. Schaller, "The vanishing Men in the United Methodist Church," Circuit Rider. (Vol. 12, No. 7), p. 4. 

23. Ibid., p. 5. 

24. Keith I. Pohl, "Feminization of the Church: Is It Coming?" Circuit Rider. (Vol. 12, No. 7), p. 3. 

25. Ibid. 

26. Schaller, op. cit., p. 6. 

27. Pohl, op. cit., p. 3. 

28. Carl Schalt, op. cit., p. 307. 

29. Jean C. Lyles, "The Fading Of Denominational Distinctiveness," Progressions. (Vol. 2, Issue 1), p. 16. 

30. Ibid. 

31. Ibid. 

32. Exodus 33:15.